The Changing Face of Scotland - Abstracts
Seminars
Prof Allan Findlay - University of Dundee
Is Scotland a Meritocracy?
Most people in Western society like to think that people's success is determined by their abilities and that opportunities for advancement are driven primarily by individual abilities as one might hope for in a meritocracy. In reality this is seldom the case. This presentation will show that a number of powerful forces have produced uneven opportunities (spatial and social) for occupational advancement in Scotland. Edinburgh as capital of a devolved nation, hub for financial service activities and regional head office location for many public sector bodies certainly boasts many of the characteristics that one would expect to find in an escalator region. However, there are also many individual level factors that can influence success in the labour market. This presentation seeks to unpick the complex relationships between individual success, migration, ethnicity, country of birth and place of residence in Scotland. I will do this using longitudinal census data linking individual records from the 1991 and 2001 censuses obtained via the Scottish Longitudinal Study. From the data we create logistic regression models assessing the probability that individuals in social classes 3 or 5 move upwards, and individuals in social classes 1 or 2 manage to maintain their position. Particular attention is given to the labour force experience of English-born residents of Edinburgh, whom the cross-sectional literature suggest are more likely to achieve higher occupational status than their Scottish counterparts.
Dr Chris Wilson - University of St Andrews
Scotland's Demography in International Perspective
When we try to look into the future and see what Scotland's population will be like in the decades ahead, we need to understand both the particular demographic experience of Scotland and the international context in which it evolves. Trends in fertility, mortality, migration and ageing are a mix of specific national patterns and developments that are shared with many other countries. We can get valuable insights into Scotland's likely future from considering its place in this wider demographic system. The most relevant comparisons vary according to the topic of interest: Northern Europe, the EU, the English-speaking world, and even the world as a whole. This talk highlights what we can learn from an appreciation of these broader demographic trends.
Dr Elspeth Graham - University of St Andrews
Scotland's Fertility: Past, Present and Future
The last half century has seen some significant changes in Scotland's population. An increasing proportion of Scotland's inhabitants are now in older age groups and forecasts early in the new millennium suggested that low fertility would drive further demographic ageing and, around mid-century, population decline. The recent upturn in fertility has cast doubt on this forecast and in this talk I ask whether we still need to be worried.
Trends in Scotland's fertility from 1960 to the present time are examined, drawing out the implications of past trends for future population change. The causes of recent increases in fertility remain a matter of speculation but fertility rises are not confined to Scotland. When we look at Scotland within a European context and compare fertility levels with those in England and other EU countries, the comparison points to some general influences beyond those particular to the UK that have encouraged more births. In conclusion, I return to the question of what the future holds, especially in relation to the potential impact of the current economic downturn on fertility.
Prof Robert Wright - University of Strathclyde
Scotland's Future Demographic Prospects: Growth, Decline or Stagnation?
This lecture will review past, present and possible future demographic trends in Scotland. The economic implications of different demographic futures will be considered. Particular attention will be paid to the impact on the housing market, the labour market, the delivery of public expenditure and the education system. It is concluded that demographic change will provide serious challenges that if not addressed with sensible public policy will lead to a reduction in living standards in Scotland.
Demonstrations
Matt Perkins - Office of the Chief Statistician, Scottish Government
Scottish Neighbourhood Statistics (SNS) and Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD)
Scottish Neighbourhood Statistics is the Scottish Governments ongoing programme to improve the availability, consistency and accessibility of small area statistics in Scotland. This session will provide and interactive demonstration of the functionality and data available. Please visit www.sns.gov.uk for more information.
The Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation is a tool for identifying small area concentrations of multiple deprivation across Scotland. The SIMD was updated in October 2009 and this session will provide some background on the SIMD, details of the indicators used, the results and how to use them. More information on the SIMD is available at www.scotland.gov.uk/SIMD.
Ed Turnbull, Rob Collins & Sandy Taylor - General Register Office for Scotland
Disseminating Census Results for Scotland
This workshop session will provide a brief demonstartion of the current online tool for accessing census results - Scotland's Census Results Online (SCROL). It will cover some of the features of the web dissemination tools being considered for disseminating census results following the 2011 Census data. There will also be an opportunity to ask questions about GROS' early plans for the production and dissemination of the 2011 Census results. Please visit www.scrol.gov.uk for more information.
