Data Analysis using Count Models
12-13 July 2016
Edinburgh Training and Conference Centre, St Mary's Street, Edinburgh
This is a two-day hands-on training workshop led by Dr Les Humphreys, Lancaster University, Dr Paul Norris and Dr Rebecca Pillinger, University of Edinburgh.
This course will explore methods for analysing aggregate crime data with a particular focus on analysing change over time. The value of these approaches in understanding levels of, and changes incrime is illustrated using examples of US recorded crime data in the lectures, and recorded crime data from Scotland in the practical sessions. This type of data is not normally distributed; it is count data and so takes discrete non-negative values which are Poisson or Negative Binomially distributed. Hence it is not appropriate to fit linear models to this type of outcome, as we will show. Instead, Generalised Linear Models (GLMs) should be used. These provide a method to estimate regression models where the distribution of the outcome variable belongs to a certain family of non-Normal distributions. This includes the Poisson distribution, on which we focus, and the Negative Binomial distribution, which we also discuss.
We will explore the basic principles of Poisson log-linear models and rate models. In addition, the course will cover the basics of changepoint models and spline models. Changepoint models allow us to detect whether and when changes in crime trends have taken place, and spline models allow us to estimate smooth regression curves. Whilst the substantive application is to crime, and thus the course is most relevant to students and researchers in this area, the techniques presented apply to any repeated measures of count data, and thus the course may also be of interest to those in other substantive areas who are engaging in research that explores change over time in social processes.
- To show why GLMs are needed when working with count outcomes and provide a thorough introduction to using them
- To teach participants the principles underlying change point models and spline models and how these approaches differ from other methods of analysing repeated data
- To illustrate the application of these approaches using specific examples of recorded crime in Scotland and domestic violence in England and Wales
- To give participants practical hands on experience of fitting GLMs, changepoint models and spline models
By the end of the workshop participants will:
- Understand the theory and methods behind GLMs, changepoint models, and spline models
- Be able to apply these techniques to suitable data making relevant assumptions
- Be confident in accurately interpreting the results of this type of analysis
There are 20 places available on the course and places will be allocated following a process of application. Priority will be given to doctoral students enrolled in a social science degree programme at any Scottish University or to doctoral students funded by an ESRC-funded UK Doctoral Training Centre. Remaining places will be offered for a fee to other doctoral students, academic staff, researchers and non-academics who have submitted an application.
Criteria for selection:
All participants must be competent in the use of a PC and the Windows environment. They should also be familiar with social science survey data analysis with a good understanding of statistical modelling, and be confident in the use of linear regression modelling. Participants must not be reluctant to work using syntax (rather than through menus). Familiarity with R software would be advantageous but is not essential.
Participants must indicate in their application what they wish to achieve from the course and how they plan to employ the techniques that will be taught.
This training course is offered free of charge to doctoral students registered on a social science degree programme at a Scottish University or to doctoral students studying at an ESRC-funded Doctoral Training Centre.
Remaining places will be open to others for a fee:
|Doctoral students studying at a non-DTC institution||£60|
|Academic staff, ESRC funded researchers and UK registered charitable organisations||£120|
Please note that AQMeN can only accept payment for training via the University of Edinburgh ePay system. We are unable to issue invoices or accept cheques for payment. All payments must be received within 14 days of a place being offered otherwise the place will be released. Payment should not be made until you have received confirmation that you have been allocated a place on the course.
There are 18 places available on the course and places will be allocated following a process of application.
To apply for this event, a completed on-line application form should be submitted by 12 noon on 27th May 2016. Successful applicants will be notified by 7th June 2016.
Travel and accommodation bursaries:
Doctoral students registered on a social science degree programme at a Scottish university or at an ESRC-funded DTC may be eligible to claim travel and/or accommodation costs to attend.
In order to be eligible for a bursary you must reside outside Edinburgh and attend a university outside Edinburgh. Reimbursement can only take place if you follow the reimbursement process detailed below and bursaries for eligible students will be capped at the following rates:
|Travel time (by rail) from Edinburgh||Maximum Travel Contribution
|Up to 1 hour (travelling each day)||2 return trips @£25/trip = £50||NIL|
|Up to 1 hour(with accomodation)||1 return trip @£25/trip = £25||Up to 1 nights accomodation at maximum £60 per night|
|Up to 2 hours||1 return trip @£50/trip = £50||Up to 1 nights accomodation at maximum £60 per night|
|Over 2 hours||1 return trip @£100/trip = £100||Up to 1 nights accomodation at maximum £60 per night|
Students are responsible for arranging travel and/or accommodation (if applicable) themselves and will only be reimbursed upon presentation of original receipts (no photocopies or credit card receipts will be accepted) and completion of the relevant expense claim form which will be provided post-event.
AQMeN will not reimburse the following costs (unless agreed prior to the event):
- First class travel
- Meals or room service
- Inter-city travel (e.g. buses to and from event venue)
- Taxi fares
- Credit card fees
- Sundries (e.g.wireless internet access or newspapers at accommodation)
All expense claims and receipts must be received by the AQMeN office no later than 2 weeks following the last day of the event in order to be eligible for reimbursement.
Cancellation and Non-attendance:
By applying for this course, you are expected to attend for the full duration. Failure to attend all sessions (unless by prior agreement with the AQMeN core team) may result in a charge of £50 per day of the course missed, non-reimbursement of expenses and ineligibility to be considered for future AQMeN training courses and events.
If after receiving an allocated place on the course you are no longer able to attend, you must notify AQMeN as soon as possible to allow the place to be offered to someone on the waiting list. Failure to do so may result in a charge of £50 per day of the course, non-reimbursement of expenses and ineligibility to be considered for future AQMeN training courses and events.
Course fees are non-refundable. In exceptional cirumstances a refund may by permitted at the discretion of the AQMeN Research and Development Manager.
If you have any questions regarding the course, please feel free to contact firstname.lastname@example.org or + 44 (0) 131 650 2105